Issue #018 explores Kilburn Engineering’s revenue surge from ₹123 Cr in FY22 to a projected ₹720 Cr in FY26. We analyze revenue forecasts, margins, profits, valuation gaps - and is it investible?
We love your work - I watch your videos of youtube without fail. You continue to inspire/impress us.
Just one suggestion/critic,
If you could identify the "kilburn" type of a stock.. before it shoots up 6 times in the last 24 months - it would be greatly appreciated.
It doesn't inspire confidence to buy a stock that's already up 6 times in the last 24 months (which has done literally nothing in the last 8 years before that)
This makes us wonder what really happened in the last 2 years that didn't happen in the last 8 years before that.
Hello Naveen ji - thank you for the praise and criticism.
You've inadvertently touched upon a number of topics here, let me address this one by one:
1. Speculation versus Investing
Two years back, what Kilburn Engineering offered were a bunch of promises. Even in Q1FY24 transcript, there was no mention of M E Energy, no mention of MIDC Ambernath plant and no mention of Monga Strayfield.
Essentially, there was no evidence that KEL will do well and "investing" (not the right word) during that period would've been tantamount to speculation. Specific to me, this doesn't fit my investing style & my newsletter will continue to be a reflection of me
2. Price as an anchor to "confidence"
KEL's two-year stock price surge of 600% was a bit deflating. What if the stock price surge was 100%? What is the stock price had gone up by just 30% in the last 2 months? My observation is -- even a 10% rise in the day prior to one buying is akin to a Greek tragedy
But why use "price" as the sole anchor when we all know that the EPS is the real input & the stock price is only an output. Again, let's examine KEL's progress:
a) TTM EPS as on March 2022: ₹0.45; stock price = ₹51
b) TTM EPS as on March 2023: ₹8.41; stock price = ₹94
c) TTM EPS as on March 2024: ₹9.49; stock price = ₹335
d) TTM EPS as on 23 December 2024: ₹13.20; stock price = ₹467
Don't look too much into the numbers, we are conversing broadly. But here (like I see in most companies), as the EPS increases -- so does the stock price.
Now in my newsletter piece, I've projected an increase in EPS -- between ₹16.7 and ₹20.1 by March 2026 (a jump of 17-32% from current levels) -- and it is my contention that it's EPS from where one's confidence should emerge from
3. Mentally locking the upside
"Itna bad gaya hai, aur kitna badega". A common phrase amongst investors including me and often an area of regret. In my case, it's Titan -- bought when post split/bonus price was ₹4.5, sold at ₹9 .. only to see current price at ₹3,354
Connecting it back with Kilburn. Yes, the price has gone up by 6x in the last two years .. why can't it go up by another 6x in the next six years?
This comes to a 34% rise in EPS annually over 6 years and while I haven't collected evidence of that (my piece is until FY26), I've already shown KEL's EPS can rise by upto 32% over the next 1.5 years
An even stark example of this in my newsletter is Sky Gold. When I featured Sky Gold on 8th Sep 2024, it had gone up 10 times in 1 year and was priced around ₹273. Yes, the price was ₹28 on 8th Sep 2023. Now, I could have chained myself to the walls of regret and sorrow -- but the EPS projection made me suggest there is more juice to this stock. I invested at ₹275, the current price is ₹434 -- and I'm 57% up in 3.5 months.
SkyGold is not an isolated example and the same was seen with other featured pieces on my newsletter like BLS (+24% in 4 months), Garware Hi-Tech (+40% in 2 months) and Zaggle Prepaid (+42% in 4 months)
---
Back to me (apologies for this long note) & to sum up:
a) I mostly invest my money (don't speculate)
b) I treat price as a mere output and EPS (esp. projected EPS) says it all
c) Particularly with re: to stock price, I don't allow past movement limit my assessment of it's upside
d) I am a balanced investor (not aggressive) and believe 20-25% annually can be made out of stocks over long periods without having to take many risks
Over time, my newsletter & Youtube channel will attract only those people who ascribe to my style of investing as the others dissipate.
I wish we had teacher telling us personal finance with 10% of your patience from our Schools!
Like how Investors are worried about stock price going up for them to take buy position, I am worried now about your increasing followers which might result in less detailed comments like these in the future :p ( Pun Intended )
Yes, it surprising how the human mind works. Like -- your brain activated the thought "hey, let me worry about Shankar toning down the details in these comments"
I've got hundreds more that would go something like "hope you maintain this quality in the future" or "hope you don't become like other finfluencers" or "I didn't expect this from you" etc. etc. Did I say hundred? OK, how about a thousand.
I've always found this remarkable. Why won't the brain think:
- Oh nice, Shankar's comments are so detailed. I'm sure there's an opportunity for Shankar to convert this into a booklet like "Almanack of Naval Ravikant" and he can start addressing these in even greater details on community live sessions
- Good, he's making some money. Shankar clearly wants to grow his business so he'll recruit more researchers who'll bring in even more perspective & the quality of research will improve
- Nice, Shankar's built differentiation from other finfluencers. There's enough evidence of that -- he doesn't do courses, he doesn't do 1 minute instagram reels, no 9 rupee webinars, no unverified stock tips .. Shankar is working on evergreen YT videos, a high-quality newsletter, a even more valuable community, a smallcase etc. He's increasing the gap
In my view, "doom and gloom" thinking can be reversed. I'm certainly on that path and now my brain automatically reverses the view & makes it positively. Yes, it's not possible everytime but most times, it's able to play turncoat and bring out a message that atleast helps me, if not anyone else
I'm just rambling now and this is in no way reflective of your note .. it was just a follow-up to a previous thought thread. Sorry for keeping this long (again!)
Alas, true. Ideal way how our brain works should be the way you described, take positive and manifest positivity.
On a flip, when i introspect. I am finding two reasons,
1. None of the influencers whom I came across stood to the ground of no - nonsense knowledge sharing. There’s always a break point. May be it could be a fear and liking for your content made me think that perhaps what if it is diluted.
2. In my personal experience, I earlier used to work for a large Insurance broking company managing insurance portfolio for large business. My attention to my clients is always inversely proportional to volume of clientele and revenue increase as my bandwidth shall get slim and my personal attention would decrease as I delegate more work to team.
Having said that, the whole essence of work or passion is to thrive, grow and excel. I’m sure you would grow and thrive, but now I rephrase my words hoping you to share your wisdom through all mediums , make loads of money for yourself and your content followers. Hope the wit in your YouTube videos is never neglected :D
1. Yes, it's important to create a "thought force-field" around oneself esp. if one knows the dementors are at the gates. In your case, it's prior interaction with other content creators -- and in my case, it's the dozens of acrid comments I receive each week
2. You're right. More clients often leads to less time per client -- what we learnt as "span of control". This is esp true in broking-type models where group policy cheques are 10 lakhs & above but the client will give that cheque to you & you only.
This won't be a problem for me for two reasons:
a) My model (YT, newsletter & community) is made to service large audiences and not individuals. People understand that and hence the questions I receive can be handled in 2-3 minutes (I receive about 30 comments/day currently)
b) Unlike broking where you need to be present, I have leverage i.e. a colleague can answer questions, AI can sort the important messages, some questions can be ignored, other community members can answer etc.
Your point is a valid one though and it's because I was always keen on creating something for a manageable mass, I didn't go for 1:1 models like paid advisory, portfolio management or consultations
Thank you for your kind wishes
PS: Btw, the reference I made on "Almanack of Naval Ravikant", I'm keen on pursuing it and have an "Almanack of Shankar Nath" sometime next year :)
Great endeavour shankar.Your newsletter is truly amazing and very informative for newcomers like me. I have one suggestion (if you like) to start smallcase for investors like us. Your way of analysis actually enlightening us and changing our perception about stocks in holistic manner.
Dear Mr. Shankar, I am pleased to notice that you are planning to launch a smallcase soon. I have been reading your newsletter for the last 2-3 months, and I resonate with your investment style. I first came across your work through your article on BLS, a stock I had identified for my personal investment. Reading your in-depth research on the stock only reinforced my conviction in the decision.
As an aspiring equity research analyst, I would love the opportunity to work with you and contribute to your projects. If there is a possibility of collaborating, I would be thrilled to discuss how I could be of value to your team. I look forward to hearing from you.
Shankar, this is the first of your newsletter I received since I activated my subscription and its an excellent read. Your answers to Questions here are also very insightful and very helpful for our education. Thanks for sharing this excellent work
I'm currently exploring the community part -- which platform, inclusions, exclusions etc. I’ve reached out to Ishmohit to understand how SOIC has approached this and will be meeting Neeraj Arora next week to learn from his experience as well.
What’s becoming clear is that building a community isn’t an instant process — it takes time to grow organically. Importantly, unlike traditional learning through videos, posts, courses or books, investing is primarily shaped by experience. That’s why I see a community as an essential.
Interactions and shared experiences can significantly enhance a member/student's success making it an effective learning environment -- I now realize the importance of me responding to almost every question .. and now imagine the learning if 10 people are responding to a member's question. I want to encourage that & foster an environment of give-take-contribute amongst all members
Amazing Shankar , I love the way you do your analysis around the stock , new opportunities the companies is looking for and how upgrading their existing framework. One question how much we should invest in this , how do you decide that?
Understandably, how much to invest depends on the investor's disposable capital.
Personally, I tend start off with some 60-70k of initial investment and as my confidence in the company & valuation grows, I continue adding upon it to reach up to 3 lakh rupees. I've done this for most of the newsletter-featured stocks e.g. Zaggle, BLS, Deep, Garware Hi-Tech (3.5 lakhs), Raymond, UGRO, Sky Gold & Kilburn (currently 2 lakhs).
Very specific to newsletter-featured stocks (since Aug 2024) -- I have invested 21.7 lakhs and the portfolio is 25.2 lakhs now. This comes to an absolute return of 16% and an XIRR of 73%. I'm certain the XIRR will come down over time but I'm happy this has been achieved at a time when the small cap index returned 0% or lower
So, the accumulate slowly is the approach I prefer. Hope this helps.
Any particular reason for the same? As the growth it is showing is according to the substack article you have written. Is there something extra we need to analyze?
I had found some better opportunity to deploy the funds where the growth was more visible to me. I haven't found any holes in the investing thesis I presented on Samhi Hotels in August last year
Ok thanks for the reply. Have send one detailed analysis of a company Craftsman automation to the mail id. Please provide your feedback on the same during your free time. I am still learning the art of stock picking so any help would be highly appreciated. Thanks 🙏🏻
Hey Shankar. Excellent analysis. Appreciate the efforts. One question however: apart from the EPS dilution, are there any other potentially negative factors that might stop you from investing in Kilburn? What would you recommend to look out for in the future as a part of exit strategy for such company? Thanks!
Thank you Shankar Ji,Please consider and let us know while you are exit from a stock as well,As usual thank you for your great insights and Happy New year to you and to our subscribers...
Whatever be the price Suresh ji, 90% of readers will be an aggrieved lot
The reason is ingrained in most of us -- focus on the price, not on the value
In services, price (irrespective of the number) is a natural filter and this will come to the advantage of the 10% who subscribe to my services
I can focus more, deliver high value to them and with. the assurance that these folks are long-term investors who are keen to learn & earn a few more lakhs (along with me) over the coming decade
- As per Screener, the TTM earnings come out as 47Cr.
- As per your computations, if you consider the number of shares post preferential allotments and future warrant conversions, they come out as 5,22,85,358
As per these, the current EPS comes out as Rs. 8.99 which is significantly different compared to the Rs. 13.2 EPS (TTM), that you considered.
Wanted to check if you considered some things differently?
As of 30th September, the outstanding shares are 4.52 crores (not 5.22 crs) and hence computes to a TTM EPS of ₹13.2. Please refer to https://shankarnath.substack.com/i/153605529/the-money-spattered-bride for more clarity & calculations on this esp. the first 3 tables of this section
Your stock analysis was incredibly insightful. However, as someone new to the stock market, I have a follow-up question.
While your guidance helps me decide which stocks to pick, I am unsure about the best time to exit this stocks. With my full-time job, I find it challenging to constantly monitor company progress or stay updated with market trends.
Do you have any suggestions or strategies for managing this? For example, should I set specific exit criteria like a target price or a percentage gain/loss or projected EPS? Or are there tools or services you recommend that could help automate tracking and provide timely alerts?
Your advice would be greatly appreciated as I navigate this new journey in the stock market!
The easiest way to find time to monitor a company's progress is -- a) invest in a limited number of companies (10-15) and b) be very selective i.e. invest in companies that offer a high margin of safety (excellent growth prospects, competitive advantage, monopoly/oligopoly, good management, margin visibility etc.)
With re: your questions on exit, I don't use some tool or service to track exit points. Instead I do it the hard way -- I read a lot (earnings transcript, news, corp. announcements etc.) and if over 2-3 quarters I see that the company is not performing per expectations or there's a change in approach then I re-evaluate the investing thesis. Apologies -- I don't have a shortcut here. But while my way takes up time, I've seen it to be very effective and most of the companies I have exited have struggled to come back up
Hi Shankar,
We love your work - I watch your videos of youtube without fail. You continue to inspire/impress us.
Just one suggestion/critic,
If you could identify the "kilburn" type of a stock.. before it shoots up 6 times in the last 24 months - it would be greatly appreciated.
It doesn't inspire confidence to buy a stock that's already up 6 times in the last 24 months (which has done literally nothing in the last 8 years before that)
This makes us wonder what really happened in the last 2 years that didn't happen in the last 8 years before that.
Best Regards,
Hello Naveen ji - thank you for the praise and criticism.
You've inadvertently touched upon a number of topics here, let me address this one by one:
1. Speculation versus Investing
Two years back, what Kilburn Engineering offered were a bunch of promises. Even in Q1FY24 transcript, there was no mention of M E Energy, no mention of MIDC Ambernath plant and no mention of Monga Strayfield.
Essentially, there was no evidence that KEL will do well and "investing" (not the right word) during that period would've been tantamount to speculation. Specific to me, this doesn't fit my investing style & my newsletter will continue to be a reflection of me
2. Price as an anchor to "confidence"
KEL's two-year stock price surge of 600% was a bit deflating. What if the stock price surge was 100%? What is the stock price had gone up by just 30% in the last 2 months? My observation is -- even a 10% rise in the day prior to one buying is akin to a Greek tragedy
But why use "price" as the sole anchor when we all know that the EPS is the real input & the stock price is only an output. Again, let's examine KEL's progress:
a) TTM EPS as on March 2022: ₹0.45; stock price = ₹51
b) TTM EPS as on March 2023: ₹8.41; stock price = ₹94
c) TTM EPS as on March 2024: ₹9.49; stock price = ₹335
d) TTM EPS as on 23 December 2024: ₹13.20; stock price = ₹467
Don't look too much into the numbers, we are conversing broadly. But here (like I see in most companies), as the EPS increases -- so does the stock price.
Now in my newsletter piece, I've projected an increase in EPS -- between ₹16.7 and ₹20.1 by March 2026 (a jump of 17-32% from current levels) -- and it is my contention that it's EPS from where one's confidence should emerge from
3. Mentally locking the upside
"Itna bad gaya hai, aur kitna badega". A common phrase amongst investors including me and often an area of regret. In my case, it's Titan -- bought when post split/bonus price was ₹4.5, sold at ₹9 .. only to see current price at ₹3,354
Connecting it back with Kilburn. Yes, the price has gone up by 6x in the last two years .. why can't it go up by another 6x in the next six years?
This comes to a 34% rise in EPS annually over 6 years and while I haven't collected evidence of that (my piece is until FY26), I've already shown KEL's EPS can rise by upto 32% over the next 1.5 years
An even stark example of this in my newsletter is Sky Gold. When I featured Sky Gold on 8th Sep 2024, it had gone up 10 times in 1 year and was priced around ₹273. Yes, the price was ₹28 on 8th Sep 2023. Now, I could have chained myself to the walls of regret and sorrow -- but the EPS projection made me suggest there is more juice to this stock. I invested at ₹275, the current price is ₹434 -- and I'm 57% up in 3.5 months.
SkyGold is not an isolated example and the same was seen with other featured pieces on my newsletter like BLS (+24% in 4 months), Garware Hi-Tech (+40% in 2 months) and Zaggle Prepaid (+42% in 4 months)
---
Back to me (apologies for this long note) & to sum up:
a) I mostly invest my money (don't speculate)
b) I treat price as a mere output and EPS (esp. projected EPS) says it all
c) Particularly with re: to stock price, I don't allow past movement limit my assessment of it's upside
d) I am a balanced investor (not aggressive) and believe 20-25% annually can be made out of stocks over long periods without having to take many risks
Over time, my newsletter & Youtube channel will attract only those people who ascribe to my style of investing as the others dissipate.
Dear Shankar,
I wish we had teacher telling us personal finance with 10% of your patience from our Schools!
Like how Investors are worried about stock price going up for them to take buy position, I am worried now about your increasing followers which might result in less detailed comments like these in the future :p ( Pun Intended )
More power to you and more wisdom to us from you.
Thank you!
Yes, it surprising how the human mind works. Like -- your brain activated the thought "hey, let me worry about Shankar toning down the details in these comments"
I've got hundreds more that would go something like "hope you maintain this quality in the future" or "hope you don't become like other finfluencers" or "I didn't expect this from you" etc. etc. Did I say hundred? OK, how about a thousand.
I've always found this remarkable. Why won't the brain think:
- Oh nice, Shankar's comments are so detailed. I'm sure there's an opportunity for Shankar to convert this into a booklet like "Almanack of Naval Ravikant" and he can start addressing these in even greater details on community live sessions
- Good, he's making some money. Shankar clearly wants to grow his business so he'll recruit more researchers who'll bring in even more perspective & the quality of research will improve
- Nice, Shankar's built differentiation from other finfluencers. There's enough evidence of that -- he doesn't do courses, he doesn't do 1 minute instagram reels, no 9 rupee webinars, no unverified stock tips .. Shankar is working on evergreen YT videos, a high-quality newsletter, a even more valuable community, a smallcase etc. He's increasing the gap
In my view, "doom and gloom" thinking can be reversed. I'm certainly on that path and now my brain automatically reverses the view & makes it positively. Yes, it's not possible everytime but most times, it's able to play turncoat and bring out a message that atleast helps me, if not anyone else
I'm just rambling now and this is in no way reflective of your note .. it was just a follow-up to a previous thought thread. Sorry for keeping this long (again!)
I like the way you did comprehend.
Alas, true. Ideal way how our brain works should be the way you described, take positive and manifest positivity.
On a flip, when i introspect. I am finding two reasons,
1. None of the influencers whom I came across stood to the ground of no - nonsense knowledge sharing. There’s always a break point. May be it could be a fear and liking for your content made me think that perhaps what if it is diluted.
2. In my personal experience, I earlier used to work for a large Insurance broking company managing insurance portfolio for large business. My attention to my clients is always inversely proportional to volume of clientele and revenue increase as my bandwidth shall get slim and my personal attention would decrease as I delegate more work to team.
Having said that, the whole essence of work or passion is to thrive, grow and excel. I’m sure you would grow and thrive, but now I rephrase my words hoping you to share your wisdom through all mediums , make loads of money for yourself and your content followers. Hope the wit in your YouTube videos is never neglected :D
1. Yes, it's important to create a "thought force-field" around oneself esp. if one knows the dementors are at the gates. In your case, it's prior interaction with other content creators -- and in my case, it's the dozens of acrid comments I receive each week
2. You're right. More clients often leads to less time per client -- what we learnt as "span of control". This is esp true in broking-type models where group policy cheques are 10 lakhs & above but the client will give that cheque to you & you only.
This won't be a problem for me for two reasons:
a) My model (YT, newsletter & community) is made to service large audiences and not individuals. People understand that and hence the questions I receive can be handled in 2-3 minutes (I receive about 30 comments/day currently)
b) Unlike broking where you need to be present, I have leverage i.e. a colleague can answer questions, AI can sort the important messages, some questions can be ignored, other community members can answer etc.
Your point is a valid one though and it's because I was always keen on creating something for a manageable mass, I didn't go for 1:1 models like paid advisory, portfolio management or consultations
Thank you for your kind wishes
PS: Btw, the reference I made on "Almanack of Naval Ravikant", I'm keen on pursuing it and have an "Almanack of Shankar Nath" sometime next year :)
Ah, The Almanack of Shankar Nath—now that sounds like a bestseller waiting to happen! I can already picture it: timeless wisdom, a splash of humor.
I am in queue to pre-order “23rd Jan 2025” !!
Also, Shankar ji.
I have not tried to make any Intentional or un intentional “Arcid” comment which has begin this thread.
In all possibility you have all reasons to perceive with the daily flow of comment you receive, but that was not my intention at all.
Apologies if you have felt so!
Your patience is admirable!
Thanks for the another excellent pick and insights shankar ji👌
Most welcome, Praveen ji. I'm glad you liked it 🙌
Great endeavour shankar.Your newsletter is truly amazing and very informative for newcomers like me. I have one suggestion (if you like) to start smallcase for investors like us. Your way of analysis actually enlightening us and changing our perception about stocks in holistic manner.
Thank you so much, Mr. Gupta. I'm glad you like my work.
Smallcase is lined up for the 2nd half of 2025. As 1st steps, I've applied for a Research Analyst certification with SEBI
Dear Mr. Shankar, I am pleased to notice that you are planning to launch a smallcase soon. I have been reading your newsletter for the last 2-3 months, and I resonate with your investment style. I first came across your work through your article on BLS, a stock I had identified for my personal investment. Reading your in-depth research on the stock only reinforced my conviction in the decision.
As an aspiring equity research analyst, I would love the opportunity to work with you and contribute to your projects. If there is a possibility of collaborating, I would be thrilled to discuss how I could be of value to your team. I look forward to hearing from you.
Best regards,
Shane
Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/shanedsilva
Shankar, this is the first of your newsletter I received since I activated my subscription and its an excellent read. Your answers to Questions here are also very insightful and very helpful for our education. Thanks for sharing this excellent work
Thank you 🙌 .. I'm happy you liked my work, wishing you the best. You can access the previous stories at https://shankarnath.substack.com/archive
Thank you for the analysis sir , will the future paid membership be accessible through youtube member or any other platform ? (Waiting for it )
Most welcome.
I'm currently exploring the community part -- which platform, inclusions, exclusions etc. I’ve reached out to Ishmohit to understand how SOIC has approached this and will be meeting Neeraj Arora next week to learn from his experience as well.
What’s becoming clear is that building a community isn’t an instant process — it takes time to grow organically. Importantly, unlike traditional learning through videos, posts, courses or books, investing is primarily shaped by experience. That’s why I see a community as an essential.
Interactions and shared experiences can significantly enhance a member/student's success making it an effective learning environment -- I now realize the importance of me responding to almost every question .. and now imagine the learning if 10 people are responding to a member's question. I want to encourage that & foster an environment of give-take-contribute amongst all members
More on this soon
It sounds like it would be a good learning experience.
Amazing Shankar , I love the way you do your analysis around the stock , new opportunities the companies is looking for and how upgrading their existing framework. One question how much we should invest in this , how do you decide that?
Thank you Abhishek ji
Understandably, how much to invest depends on the investor's disposable capital.
Personally, I tend start off with some 60-70k of initial investment and as my confidence in the company & valuation grows, I continue adding upon it to reach up to 3 lakh rupees. I've done this for most of the newsletter-featured stocks e.g. Zaggle, BLS, Deep, Garware Hi-Tech (3.5 lakhs), Raymond, UGRO, Sky Gold & Kilburn (currently 2 lakhs).
Very specific to newsletter-featured stocks (since Aug 2024) -- I have invested 21.7 lakhs and the portfolio is 25.2 lakhs now. This comes to an absolute return of 16% and an XIRR of 73%. I'm certain the XIRR will come down over time but I'm happy this has been achieved at a time when the small cap index returned 0% or lower
So, the accumulate slowly is the approach I prefer. Hope this helps.
Thanks for the update regarding how to invest in each stock. How about Samhi hotels. Since you have not mentioned that. Have you exited the stock?
Yes, in early December
Any particular reason for the same? As the growth it is showing is according to the substack article you have written. Is there something extra we need to analyze?
I had found some better opportunity to deploy the funds where the growth was more visible to me. I haven't found any holes in the investing thesis I presented on Samhi Hotels in August last year
Ok thanks for the reply. Have send one detailed analysis of a company Craftsman automation to the mail id. Please provide your feedback on the same during your free time. I am still learning the art of stock picking so any help would be highly appreciated. Thanks 🙏🏻
Thanks for the detailed overview Shankar ji .
Most welcome!
Thank you Shankar Sir For Providing Such Valuable Insights.
Most welcome, glad you found this useful!
Wonderful analysis as usual - had great fun reading it.
Looking forward to the paid membership!!
A very Happy & prosperous New Year to you and your family!!
Thank you Aneesh ji, glad you like it 🙌
Likewise, wishing you & your family a joyful, memorable & purposeful 2025
Thanks for the detailed coverage of Kilburn. It strengthens our conviction in your stock picks. I wish you a thrilled and successful New Year 2025.
P Sanyal
Thank you for your kind wishes, Mr. Sanyal and wishing you & your family a joyful, memorable and purposeful 2025
Nice to see one more well researched excellent business. Thank you.
Most welcome, glad you liked it 🙌
Lovely. Thanks for detailed write up
Most welcome!
Hey Shankar. Excellent analysis. Appreciate the efforts. One question however: apart from the EPS dilution, are there any other potentially negative factors that might stop you from investing in Kilburn? What would you recommend to look out for in the future as a part of exit strategy for such company? Thanks!
Hello Zack,
Other than EPS dilution:
1. There's the possibility of slowdown in economic activity which'll affect capital good equipment makers like Kilburn
2. As KEL's business expands to newer industries, there's going to be increased competition not just from domestic but also from international players
thanks for your efforts
Most welcome 🙌
Thank you Shankar Ji,Please consider and let us know while you are exit from a stock as well,As usual thank you for your great insights and Happy New year to you and to our subscribers...
Most welcome Suresh ji, wishing you a happy new year filled with success, joy & above all, purpose.
Yes, exiting a stock is a part of follow-ups which will definitely find a place in the paid community I'm seeking to build in a month or two
Wish the paid services will be an affordable one,Thanks
Whatever be the price Suresh ji, 90% of readers will be an aggrieved lot
The reason is ingrained in most of us -- focus on the price, not on the value
In services, price (irrespective of the number) is a natural filter and this will come to the advantage of the 10% who subscribe to my services
I can focus more, deliver high value to them and with. the assurance that these folks are long-term investors who are keen to learn & earn a few more lakhs (along with me) over the coming decade
Agreed,Shankar Ji...lets make wealth together,Thanks
Hi Shankar ji, Nice analysis. I have one question
- As per Screener, the TTM earnings come out as 47Cr.
- As per your computations, if you consider the number of shares post preferential allotments and future warrant conversions, they come out as 5,22,85,358
As per these, the current EPS comes out as Rs. 8.99 which is significantly different compared to the Rs. 13.2 EPS (TTM), that you considered.
Wanted to check if you considered some things differently?
As of 30th September, the outstanding shares are 4.52 crores (not 5.22 crs) and hence computes to a TTM EPS of ₹13.2. Please refer to https://shankarnath.substack.com/i/153605529/the-money-spattered-bride for more clarity & calculations on this esp. the first 3 tables of this section
Got it now. Thank you for the explanation.
Greetings Shankar Sir,
Your stock analysis was incredibly insightful. However, as someone new to the stock market, I have a follow-up question.
While your guidance helps me decide which stocks to pick, I am unsure about the best time to exit this stocks. With my full-time job, I find it challenging to constantly monitor company progress or stay updated with market trends.
Do you have any suggestions or strategies for managing this? For example, should I set specific exit criteria like a target price or a percentage gain/loss or projected EPS? Or are there tools or services you recommend that could help automate tracking and provide timely alerts?
Your advice would be greatly appreciated as I navigate this new journey in the stock market!
Kind Regards
Thank you! I'm glad you like my work.
The easiest way to find time to monitor a company's progress is -- a) invest in a limited number of companies (10-15) and b) be very selective i.e. invest in companies that offer a high margin of safety (excellent growth prospects, competitive advantage, monopoly/oligopoly, good management, margin visibility etc.)
With re: your questions on exit, I don't use some tool or service to track exit points. Instead I do it the hard way -- I read a lot (earnings transcript, news, corp. announcements etc.) and if over 2-3 quarters I see that the company is not performing per expectations or there's a change in approach then I re-evaluate the investing thesis. Apologies -- I don't have a shortcut here. But while my way takes up time, I've seen it to be very effective and most of the companies I have exited have struggled to come back up