Issue #019 explores Hariom Pipe Industries & its ambitious revenue/EPS growth by FY26. We dive into revenue projections, margins, capacity, valuation etc. to assess if the stock is investment worthy
1. We read a lot, 4-5 days of reading gives us something we like. We then discuss multiple times before settling on a stock we like
2. We use basic tools like screener, earnings call transcript, annual report, research reports, news, twitter, corporate announcements on BSE/NSE India etc. We mostly don't use any query or technical indicators in our work & surprisingly, it suits us
Hi Shanker ji, Really appreciate your effort behind wirting such a details analysis, have been reading your article since a zaggle one, what a amazing explanation methodology you have plain and simple. Thank you very much.
Your insights are always helpful and inspires me become a shade better of myself. so thank you for sharing your knowledge and not jus recommending stocks. Sir, I did a peer comparison with Usha Martin and here is my top level analysis seeking your observations. Rgds
Usha Martin is not a direct competitor but similar industry -- Use Iron ore as raw material and do value addition by making specialty wire ropes, high-quality wires.
while both r trading at PE of ~26.x, Usha has a much higher ROCE at 22% compared to 14% for HPIL.
the last 3 year chart for Usha shows a steady growth where in the Oct - Dec 24 mayhem the stock didnt fall below its 200 DMA where as HPIL has fallen by ~20%.
last 3 yrs CAGR for Usha is much high at 61% where as HPIL is -19% ( source : Screener.in)
Since Usha is trading near its 200 DMA and HPIL is 20% below its 200 DMA , in the current choppy market and considering potential for both , do you suggest to consider Usha to be a outperformer than HPIL in 1 year timeframe.
Usha Martin has a very good business and after their unnecessary explorations into manufacturing steel, it's pleasant to see them do so well. This company hasn't come up on my filters yet so I haven't analysed it
Very simple to understand and to the point analysis makes your Newsletters mine and everyone else favorite.
I am not sure whether the following section of my comment makes sense or not. I actually hold 100 odd shares of Hariom Pipes, I bought at multiple levels and my average buy price is around 650 (heavy loss :(....) But I am still holding it as I also did gone thru the quarterly results and found no alarming signs to see the stock price go down, now this is not the major reason why I hold, but its my BIAS towards the company that I am still holding it. This company's head quarters is in a residential area in Hyderabad (Attapur) where even I stay and they have big hoardings and all...and the reason I got influenced ..... sorry to make my comment so large and meaning less....
Another point.... this is the second company which you featured in your Newsletter which I am owning it. Zaggle prepaid was the first one.
Can I suggest you few stocks which with my limited understanding (and of course some bias) I found promising, if yes how to share the same with you?
Hope you had a good holidays and some time away from work.... now eagerly waiting for your next video.
Hello Vinod ji - thank you for the kind words. Yes the break was essential and videos will restart from next weekend. I'll make them shorter now to field more time for my newsletter and the upcoming paid community
May I request you to offer an investing thesis along with each entry. I'm sure you have observed with each of my newsletter, there is one profusely formidable action that makes us take note of it. For example - for BLS it was that acquisition in Turkey, for SAMHI it was the debt reduction, for Deep Industries it was the deployment of Prabha, for UGRO it's the growing focus on MSME loans etc. We like stocks where there are frightening triggers/catalysts (I use frightening in a positive way)
Hello Shankar Ji, really appreciate the detailed analysis. It is very useful.
I am little concerned about the note on "Not co-operating with rating agency CareEdge". Although it is not looking very serious as CRISIL rated them successfully but still it would be great to understand the reasons.
Did anyone in your team try to get in touch with CareEdge? The contact details of the analysts are on the report (press release). May be, I can try myself but thought to check before I do that.
Nice of you to call it a team -- it's just the two of us -- me, the editor-in-chief and Priyam, researcher-par-excellence :)
No, we didn't get in touch with CareEdge due to lack of bandwidth on our part. Appreciate if you can do that & let me know the response. Alternately, you can try the investor relation team at Hariom. I couldn't find an email but in the PPT, there's a email reachout to Ms. Rekha Singh and cs@hariompipes.com and Mr. Amitabha Bhattacharya at cfo@hariompipes.com
Dear Shankar Ji, I just received a revert from Hariom Pipe. I really appreciate their detailed response.
They had discontinued the association with Care Ratings and appointed CRISIL as their official credit rating agency. As per RBI norms, they had submitted a rating withdrawal proposal to Care Ratings on two separate occasions. However, they have not withdrawn their ratings.
Hi Shankar ji, very nice find in the haystack. I have been avoiding the commodity based stocks for a while but this seems interesting and a good point for entry. Given me a purpose for the week ;)
Thank you Hemanth ji. Yes, this is interesting -- while HPIL uses iron-ore as raw material, it adds enough value to it (converting into MS pipes & tubes) to tag it as a non-commodity
I truly appreciate the level of detail and clarity in your analysis. Your deep dive into the company's financials, future growth potential, and forward PE demonstrates exceptional research and insight, making it informative and actionable. Your work adds significant value to understanding the investment potential here—great job!
Shankar, I was thrilled to see this stock analysis in my inbox, as just on Saturday I had placed stock orders (following an analysis I did after seeing your GARP video) and had shortlisted this among 12 stocks that I ordered.
Yes, a good bunch of stocks I feature in my newsletter follows the GARP framework. And why not? 1. The earning "growth" gives me the stock price acceleration I need and 2. the "reasonable price" offers some margin of safety in the decisioning
I'm keen on starting the community from next month. I'll be posting a note soon on what subscribing members should look to shape the community into & what all it might entail
Extremely grateful to receive and read your posts. The effort, the analysis, the perspective...have gone a long way in helping one understand and make investments. Especially, being a novice, I appreciate it even more all that you share. In fact, they are one of my best forwards :-)
Great issue as always, Shankar! Thank you for sharing this.
I am curious to know - how do you identify the stocks to deep dive on? And which tools do you use for the same?
Thank you!
1. We read a lot, 4-5 days of reading gives us something we like. We then discuss multiple times before settling on a stock we like
2. We use basic tools like screener, earnings call transcript, annual report, research reports, news, twitter, corporate announcements on BSE/NSE India etc. We mostly don't use any query or technical indicators in our work & surprisingly, it suits us
Hi Shanker ji, Really appreciate your effort behind wirting such a details analysis, have been reading your article since a zaggle one, what a amazing explanation methodology you have plain and simple. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much Anuj ji 🙌 I'm happy you like my work and the style of writing
Hi Shankar Ji,
Your insights are always helpful and inspires me become a shade better of myself. so thank you for sharing your knowledge and not jus recommending stocks. Sir, I did a peer comparison with Usha Martin and here is my top level analysis seeking your observations. Rgds
Usha Martin is not a direct competitor but similar industry -- Use Iron ore as raw material and do value addition by making specialty wire ropes, high-quality wires.
while both r trading at PE of ~26.x, Usha has a much higher ROCE at 22% compared to 14% for HPIL.
the last 3 year chart for Usha shows a steady growth where in the Oct - Dec 24 mayhem the stock didnt fall below its 200 DMA where as HPIL has fallen by ~20%.
last 3 yrs CAGR for Usha is much high at 61% where as HPIL is -19% ( source : Screener.in)
Since Usha is trading near its 200 DMA and HPIL is 20% below its 200 DMA , in the current choppy market and considering potential for both , do you suggest to consider Usha to be a outperformer than HPIL in 1 year timeframe.
Thank You
Your Student
Vikram
Hello Vikram ji,
Usha Martin has a very good business and after their unnecessary explorations into manufacturing steel, it's pleasant to see them do so well. This company hasn't come up on my filters yet so I haven't analysed it
Again great work Shankar!
Very simple to understand and to the point analysis makes your Newsletters mine and everyone else favorite.
I am not sure whether the following section of my comment makes sense or not. I actually hold 100 odd shares of Hariom Pipes, I bought at multiple levels and my average buy price is around 650 (heavy loss :(....) But I am still holding it as I also did gone thru the quarterly results and found no alarming signs to see the stock price go down, now this is not the major reason why I hold, but its my BIAS towards the company that I am still holding it. This company's head quarters is in a residential area in Hyderabad (Attapur) where even I stay and they have big hoardings and all...and the reason I got influenced ..... sorry to make my comment so large and meaning less....
Another point.... this is the second company which you featured in your Newsletter which I am owning it. Zaggle prepaid was the first one.
Can I suggest you few stocks which with my limited understanding (and of course some bias) I found promising, if yes how to share the same with you?
Hope you had a good holidays and some time away from work.... now eagerly waiting for your next video.
Thanks a lot again.
Hello Vinod ji - thank you for the kind words. Yes the break was essential and videos will restart from next weekend. I'll make them shorter now to field more time for my newsletter and the upcoming paid community
Pls feel free to share the stocks at hello@beginnersbuck.com
May I request you to offer an investing thesis along with each entry. I'm sure you have observed with each of my newsletter, there is one profusely formidable action that makes us take note of it. For example - for BLS it was that acquisition in Turkey, for SAMHI it was the debt reduction, for Deep Industries it was the deployment of Prabha, for UGRO it's the growing focus on MSME loans etc. We like stocks where there are frightening triggers/catalysts (I use frightening in a positive way)
Thanks in advance 🙌
Dear Shankar Ji. Learning immensely from your insights. Thank you
Most welcome. I'm happy you're finding my work useful
Hello Shankar Ji, really appreciate the detailed analysis. It is very useful.
I am little concerned about the note on "Not co-operating with rating agency CareEdge". Although it is not looking very serious as CRISIL rated them successfully but still it would be great to understand the reasons.
Did anyone in your team try to get in touch with CareEdge? The contact details of the analysts are on the report (press release). May be, I can try myself but thought to check before I do that.
Thank you Dinesh ji for liking my work
Nice of you to call it a team -- it's just the two of us -- me, the editor-in-chief and Priyam, researcher-par-excellence :)
No, we didn't get in touch with CareEdge due to lack of bandwidth on our part. Appreciate if you can do that & let me know the response. Alternately, you can try the investor relation team at Hariom. I couldn't find an email but in the PPT, there's a email reachout to Ms. Rekha Singh and cs@hariompipes.com and Mr. Amitabha Bhattacharya at cfo@hariompipes.com
Thanks for taking the initiative
Sure, I will do that.
I take your suggestion to contact Hariom Industries in the first instance.
I will keep you updated @ hello@beginnersbuck.com.
Thanks.
Dear Shankar Ji, I just received a revert from Hariom Pipe. I really appreciate their detailed response.
They had discontinued the association with Care Ratings and appointed CRISIL as their official credit rating agency. As per RBI norms, they had submitted a rating withdrawal proposal to Care Ratings on two separate occasions. However, they have not withdrawn their ratings.
I will forward the response to you.
Thanks.
Thank you Dinesh ji for taking the initiative and for sharing this. This clarifies it then.
Hi Shankar ji, very nice find in the haystack. I have been avoiding the commodity based stocks for a while but this seems interesting and a good point for entry. Given me a purpose for the week ;)
Thank you Hemanth ji. Yes, this is interesting -- while HPIL uses iron-ore as raw material, it adds enough value to it (converting into MS pipes & tubes) to tag it as a non-commodity
Would you suggest any relevant information available on the industry so as to gather required knowledge on it?
Pls read the annual report
I admire your efforts Mr. Shankar. It's hell of the information. Many congratulations on writing an avant grade article.
Thank you so much Pankaj ji. I'm glad you like this one, Priyam & I enjoyed writing this one
Wonderful Research and very well explained - plain and simple. I just found this research report from twitter. Check if it helps
https://x.com/HemantSoni01/status/1877271946057990524/photo/1
Thank you for liking and sharing. Here's the PDF: https://mnclgroup.com/storage/MNCL-Research-Hariom-Pipe-Ind-Initiating-Coverage-1.pdf
I truly appreciate the level of detail and clarity in your analysis. Your deep dive into the company's financials, future growth potential, and forward PE demonstrates exceptional research and insight, making it informative and actionable. Your work adds significant value to understanding the investment potential here—great job!
Thank you so much for your kind words, Mr. Kantharaju. Appreciate it 🙌 and I'm happy my work is helping you in your financial journey
Shankar, I was thrilled to see this stock analysis in my inbox, as just on Saturday I had placed stock orders (following an analysis I did after seeing your GARP video) and had shortlisted this among 12 stocks that I ordered.
Your videos have been a great help!
Thank you so much 🙌
Yes, a good bunch of stocks I feature in my newsletter follows the GARP framework. And why not? 1. The earning "growth" gives me the stock price acceleration I need and 2. the "reasonable price" offers some margin of safety in the decisioning
Wishing you the best with your analysis!
Thanks for the detailed analysis. Really admiring your service. When Paid service will be launched
Most welcome, Mr. Sundaram.
I'm keen on starting the community from next month. I'll be posting a note soon on what subscribing members should look to shape the community into & what all it might entail
HariOM SHANKAR ji! :D
Match made in heaven for Om and Shankar!! ;)
Thanks a lot for the analysis! Must have read at least 100 to finally arrive at this one! Huge effort! Thanks again!
Most welcome!
Thanks shankar ji for an awesome analysis and great pick 👌
I'm glad you liked it 🙌 .. thanks!
Very very thankyou sir. Your way of explaination is very simple and easy to understand.
Most welcome Asif ji. I'm happy you found it useful
Thank you, Shankar, for this lead at the right moment.
Most welcome 🙌
Extremely grateful to receive and read your posts. The effort, the analysis, the perspective...have gone a long way in helping one understand and make investments. Especially, being a novice, I appreciate it even more all that you share. In fact, they are one of my best forwards :-)
Thanks a ton....
Most welcome and thank you for the kind words 🙌