Issue #013 dives into the buzz surrounding Ceigall India Limited, examining its business fundamentals, performance, order book and valuations. My analysis indicates a potential 35-70% EPS growth
Yet another great discovery and in depth technicals with macro analysis. I immediately added into my watch list and will add into my portfolio if there is a slight dip 👍
Thank you 🙌 Yes, please review each of my posts independently. I don't give buy or sell calls .. it's mine & Priyam's research, we can be wrong aswell. The idea here is to offer everyone two layers of research -- one that we don & if you can top it up with your own research, then all the merrier.
Thank you very much Atharva ji. I love researching but yes, it's hardwork going through 50-60 stocks every week between me & Priyam (my researcher). I'm glad you're liking my work. Companies like Zaggle, BLS, Samhi etc. are driven by quarterly results so while we see noise moving them here & there -- the real lookout are the 4 quarterly financial statements that'll tell us if my thesis was right or not
Hi Shankar, on growth and valuation parameter, PNC Infratech also looks good with a low PE and 5 yr sales growth of 18% and profit growth of 24%. It also commands a sub 10 PE ratio. Can you compare both ?
On a lighter note, I hope the Sardarji is not the same from BLS international blog who couldn't get his "Visa" and had to compromise with the "construction" work! :P
Wondering which has the better scope! out of BLS and Ceigall Where's the scope of high waves!
Thank you Pradeep ji. Yes, his name is Kartar Singh .. when he is not recording videos (Kartar is my videographer), he photographs himself at the most unexpected places incl. passport offices & on a road roller :)
For now, I prefer BLS over Ceigall -- more visibility
How do you think about high working capital and in turn lack of OCF generation? The way I think about this is that higher the growth higher the debt as OCF and FCFF will seldom be positive. Any thoughts on working capital pressures and scope to drive it down?
Hello Sir, from the nov 8 concall, the promoter has given a growth guidance of 15% to 20% for this year. So this number is lower then your estimate and therefore i wanted to ask have they toned down their current or future guidance ?
Hello. All estimates have been given by the management only -- the earlier one and this current one. It's fair to assume that the the management is seeing weakness in terms of orders and this means, we'll have to redraw the valuation calculations & reassess the company's inclusion or not in one's portfolio
Thank you for answering my Query. The company mentioned from the concall a better H2 compared to H1 (Q4 being the best) and a strong order book for next 3 to 4 yrs. So the new guidance provided seems strange considering everything seems to be going so smoothly. Also mentioned they are a young company with alot of room to grow But from the past commentary, they seem to be extra conservative. So i feel the average EPS growth should still be around 30%.
Sir, Now the stock is around 320! I am keep accumulating since 3 months. When turn around of stock price is likely? Or is there any change in fundamental story?
Kindly track the growth, orderbook and earnings of this company on a quarterly basis, Mr. Maji. This is very important to do for growth-based companies like Ceigall India.
Yet another great discovery and in depth technicals with macro analysis. I immediately added into my watch list and will add into my portfolio if there is a slight dip 👍
Thank you 🙌 Yes, please review each of my posts independently. I don't give buy or sell calls .. it's mine & Priyam's research, we can be wrong aswell. The idea here is to offer everyone two layers of research -- one that we don & if you can top it up with your own research, then all the merrier.
Thank you so much for your insights Shankar Sir. Above everything, you are an exceptionally good teacher.
Thank you very much Rohan ji
Thank you Shankar ji great insights,past insights in ZAGGLE have helped, love your youtube videos especially mutual funds series.
Thank you very much Atharva ji. I love researching but yes, it's hardwork going through 50-60 stocks every week between me & Priyam (my researcher). I'm glad you're liking my work. Companies like Zaggle, BLS, Samhi etc. are driven by quarterly results so while we see noise moving them here & there -- the real lookout are the 4 quarterly financial statements that'll tell us if my thesis was right or not
Very informative.
Thank you Arif ji
Nicely explain
Thank you Jay ji
Looking good, thanks for your inputs.
Most welcome, glad you like it
Hi Shankar, on growth and valuation parameter, PNC Infratech also looks good with a low PE and 5 yr sales growth of 18% and profit growth of 24%. It also commands a sub 10 PE ratio. Can you compare both ?
Hello Atul ji -- PNC Infratech was reviewed and I had to keep it aside. Reason:
1. Management's revenue groth guidance for FY25 is zero % to minus-10% (a very rare occasion when a negative guidance was presented)
2. The guidance for FY26 is 15% growth
So, -10% in FY25 and +15% in FY26 means one can expect the 2-year growth rate for PNC Infratech to be 0%.
For specifics, kindly read pages 7 & 8 of https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/39316b9c-6fe0-40d2-b1b9-330f315ae5dc.pdf
Great analysis. Thanks for sharing your analysis!
Most welcome
Another great analysis Shankar!
On a lighter note, I hope the Sardarji is not the same from BLS international blog who couldn't get his "Visa" and had to compromise with the "construction" work! :P
Wondering which has the better scope! out of BLS and Ceigall Where's the scope of high waves!
Thank you Pradeep ji. Yes, his name is Kartar Singh .. when he is not recording videos (Kartar is my videographer), he photographs himself at the most unexpected places incl. passport offices & on a road roller :)
For now, I prefer BLS over Ceigall -- more visibility
Thanks for sharing this analysis 🙏
Most welcome!
Very good analysis sir. I wait your analysis .
Thank you 🙌
Great analysis Shankar, will definitely keep this stock inder my radar, keep doing great work :)
Thank you Jaideep. Yes, please monitor for a quarter or two .. we can again revisit it.
Hi Shankar,
How do you think about high working capital and in turn lack of OCF generation? The way I think about this is that higher the growth higher the debt as OCF and FCFF will seldom be positive. Any thoughts on working capital pressures and scope to drive it down?
Hello Sir, from the nov 8 concall, the promoter has given a growth guidance of 15% to 20% for this year. So this number is lower then your estimate and therefore i wanted to ask have they toned down their current or future guidance ?
Hello. All estimates have been given by the management only -- the earlier one and this current one. It's fair to assume that the the management is seeing weakness in terms of orders and this means, we'll have to redraw the valuation calculations & reassess the company's inclusion or not in one's portfolio
Thank you for answering my Query. The company mentioned from the concall a better H2 compared to H1 (Q4 being the best) and a strong order book for next 3 to 4 yrs. So the new guidance provided seems strange considering everything seems to be going so smoothly. Also mentioned they are a young company with alot of room to grow But from the past commentary, they seem to be extra conservative. So i feel the average EPS growth should still be around 30%.
Sir, Now the stock is around 320! I am keep accumulating since 3 months. When turn around of stock price is likely? Or is there any change in fundamental story?
Kindly track the growth, orderbook and earnings of this company on a quarterly basis, Mr. Maji. This is very important to do for growth-based companies like Ceigall India.
After today's results. Paid attention to cash flow statement for March 2023 and 2024.
Cash from operating activity is negative for both the years!