Issue #016 reviews the performance of featured stocks post their Q2FY25 results. This includes -- SAMHI Hotels, BLS International, Zaggle, Sky Gold, Raymond, Ceigall & Garware Hi-Tech Films
Very detailed analysis Shankar ji, what stands out is the fact you have compared the performance vs Nifty small cap index. Your knowledge, efforts and transperancy is deeply appreciated.
Hi Shankar, Loved your analysis. As mentioned, I will look forward to more stock analysis in near future. Keep us updated on community platform switching and subscription charges.
In your view, how do you see revenue growth from BLS in next 2-3 years?
I can clearly see lot of effort you are putting to come up with easy to understand content and graphically superior articles. It takes lot of behind the scene work, investment in digital creation and immense research to deliver to desired outcome. I hope you receive fantastic response to your new platform.
Excellent analysis, Shankar ji! As an avid follower of your Substack, I'm eager to learn more about what the paid community platform will entail and look forward to you sharing additional details soon. Additionally, are there any plans in the works to obtain SEBI registration and launch a formal research or recommendation service in the near future?
Thank you! We're currently in a planning phase and will have updates on community, SEBI registration etc. soon. Sincerely appreciate your encouragement! 🙌
I really appreciate your honest assessment of your Q2 newsletter performance. It's refreshing to see such transparency.
I've been enjoying your videos as well, especially the ones on Momentum Investing and different investing styles. Your newsletters offer a great way to consume your content at my own pace, and I find your unique perspective on supporting your analysis along with data with both good and bad side of the story particularly insightful.
Your views often align with my own thinking, which makes your content even more enjoyable. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insights."
Hello Sridhar ji, thank you very much for your kind appreciation -- here and your constant encouragement for my YT videos aswell. I'm happy you're seeing a lot of value in what I do. Not everything will be golden but I'm certain you'll find small but useful pieces of information that'll help you in piecing your own investing strategy & blueprint. For many of us, wealth building is not one big salvo but it's the aggregation of marginal gains. Wishing you the best!
Awesome review Shankar ji, however i have one query regarding Garware hitech. I believe as per management the business of SCF has low demand during H2 due to seasonality. So wouldnt it hinder its Revenue growth estimates?
Your efforts are deeply appreciated btw i myself am invested in some of the companies in your newsletter after doing my own research as well.
Your question on SCF is very valid, it's something I too had grappled with when working on the original thesis. The fact that H2FY24 was a lot higher than H1FY24 was confusing to me but then the management explained that it was on account of inventory -- which won't be the case this year
Yes. Low earnings might reduce the price performance momentum during q3 and q4 and i am expecting it come back with a bang from q1fy26 earnings. So its a wait and watch kind of scenario with favourable odds.
Looking forward to be a part of your paid community. I am part of two popular Research Advisory communities and the research they gave me didnt give any conviction. I picked 1 out of their 15 recommendations. How ever i picked 3 out of your 6. I read 3 and picked 3. I need to read BLS and ceigall and raymond.
Shankar Ji, It's great to see the performance of Zaggle, Garware, and Sky Gold in the current market situation. I appreciate your choice at the right time. I am a relative newcomer to your subscriber list.
Thank you so much Shankar Ji. Your detailed performance review on your previously reviewed stocks is excellent. It is almost like a PMS service with no strings and cost attached :). Unfortunately, both stocks i picked are underperforming and I have been contemplating what to do. Your newsletter has provided necessary analysis! Heartfelt appreciation to your efforts and sharing your wealth of knowledge and research.
Most welcome, Mr. Ponnaganti. I'm glad you are liking my work. A PMS doesn't give us a rationale/thesis, my newsletter does :)
Sorry to hear of the current underperformance. We win some, we lose some -- just have to ensure we win more than we lose & believe me as long as we're learning, our odds tend to improve over time. Wishing you the best!
Thanks Shankar Ji,benefited from Zaggle,As per latest comments from finance minister about Importance of MSME's growth in India,fingers crossed UGRO will benifit from it..as always looking forward for your YT Videos and newsletters
Most welcome Suresh ji. I'm glad Zaggle worked well for you (and me too). With UGRO, I'm working under a copycat hypothesis i.e. if Five Star Business Finance can make a 20,000 crore mcap business in 22 years -- then UGRO Capital should be able to do that in the next 10 year. That's an yearly CAGR of 24%. Ofcourse, numbers can go only that far and it's important to monitor UGRO Capital's performance on a quarterly basis. I feel some of the metrics the management has given (esp. ROA of 4% in the next 8 quarters) will be a stretch for them
Thanks a lot Shankar for the news letter comparing all the stocks you analysed earlier. The results shown by these companies were mostly in line with your expectations and so we're their share prices. Keep it up. Eagerly waiting to be a part of your paid member community once you come up with one.
Thank you so much Indraneel ji 🙌 I'm really happy, this first salvo has come out well even in an environment of price correction. I'll continue working & improving on this. Like life, so in investing -- you win some, you lose some. Just win more than you lose.
Very detailed analysis Shankar ji, what stands out is the fact you have compared the performance vs Nifty small cap index. Your knowledge, efforts and transperancy is deeply appreciated.
Thank you so much, Milind ji 🙌
Hi Shankar, Loved your analysis. As mentioned, I will look forward to more stock analysis in near future. Keep us updated on community platform switching and subscription charges.
In your view, how do you see revenue growth from BLS in next 2-3 years?
Thank you Prashant ji.
1. Supplementary products are still 2-3 months away, will update once the foundation has been laid
2. For now, my research on BLS is near term. I'll give it 1-2 more quarters before building a longer-term view
Great, thanks for revert.
One thing I would like to mention.
I can clearly see lot of effort you are putting to come up with easy to understand content and graphically superior articles. It takes lot of behind the scene work, investment in digital creation and immense research to deliver to desired outcome. I hope you receive fantastic response to your new platform.
Sincerely appreciate the kind words & encouragement 🙌
Excellent analysis, Shankar ji! As an avid follower of your Substack, I'm eager to learn more about what the paid community platform will entail and look forward to you sharing additional details soon. Additionally, are there any plans in the works to obtain SEBI registration and launch a formal research or recommendation service in the near future?
Thank you! We're currently in a planning phase and will have updates on community, SEBI registration etc. soon. Sincerely appreciate your encouragement! 🙌
Hello Shankar,
I really appreciate your honest assessment of your Q2 newsletter performance. It's refreshing to see such transparency.
I've been enjoying your videos as well, especially the ones on Momentum Investing and different investing styles. Your newsletters offer a great way to consume your content at my own pace, and I find your unique perspective on supporting your analysis along with data with both good and bad side of the story particularly insightful.
Your views often align with my own thinking, which makes your content even more enjoyable. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insights."
Hello Sridhar ji, thank you very much for your kind appreciation -- here and your constant encouragement for my YT videos aswell. I'm happy you're seeing a lot of value in what I do. Not everything will be golden but I'm certain you'll find small but useful pieces of information that'll help you in piecing your own investing strategy & blueprint. For many of us, wealth building is not one big salvo but it's the aggregation of marginal gains. Wishing you the best!
Awesome review Shankar ji, however i have one query regarding Garware hitech. I believe as per management the business of SCF has low demand during H2 due to seasonality. So wouldnt it hinder its Revenue growth estimates?
Your efforts are deeply appreciated btw i myself am invested in some of the companies in your newsletter after doing my own research as well.
Thank you! I'm glad you like my work 🙌
Your question on SCF is very valid, it's something I too had grappled with when working on the original thesis. The fact that H2FY24 was a lot higher than H1FY24 was confusing to me but then the management explained that it was on account of inventory -- which won't be the case this year
Page 8 of this PDF -- https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/3e14f133-697d-47e9-aa3e-00b02f356492.pdf -- is relevant. From here I gather:
a) Due to the seasonal effect, Q3 sales is likely to be a bit lower than Q2 due to lack in demand for SCF
b) In Q3 however, PPF sales won't be affected by the seasonality
c) Q4 will be strong as SCF demand comes back in preparation for Q1
It's fair to assume Q3 will be a bit low in sales and margin -- and hopefully, Q4 will make up for it.
Yes. Low earnings might reduce the price performance momentum during q3 and q4 and i am expecting it come back with a bang from q1fy26 earnings. So its a wait and watch kind of scenario with favourable odds.
Looking forward to be a part of your paid community. I am part of two popular Research Advisory communities and the research they gave me didnt give any conviction. I picked 1 out of their 15 recommendations. How ever i picked 3 out of your 6. I read 3 and picked 3. I need to read BLS and ceigall and raymond.
Shankar Ji, It's great to see the performance of Zaggle, Garware, and Sky Gold in the current market situation. I appreciate your choice at the right time. I am a relative newcomer to your subscriber list.
Welcome aboard, Mr. Sanyal. Thank you for your kind wishes!
Thank you so much Shankar Ji. Your detailed performance review on your previously reviewed stocks is excellent. It is almost like a PMS service with no strings and cost attached :). Unfortunately, both stocks i picked are underperforming and I have been contemplating what to do. Your newsletter has provided necessary analysis! Heartfelt appreciation to your efforts and sharing your wealth of knowledge and research.
Most welcome, Mr. Ponnaganti. I'm glad you are liking my work. A PMS doesn't give us a rationale/thesis, my newsletter does :)
Sorry to hear of the current underperformance. We win some, we lose some -- just have to ensure we win more than we lose & believe me as long as we're learning, our odds tend to improve over time. Wishing you the best!
Very good summary. Keep up the good work.
Thank you!
Good analysis as always. Each time I learn a bit.
Thank you!
Really appreciate you work and candour. Would love to support as paid member of the community.
Thank you very much for the vote of confidence, Atit ji 🙌
Simple, short and crisp. Love it and looking forward for more great analysis 💯
Thank you so much 🙌
Thanks a lot Shankarnath for the valuable insights of companies in different sectors..
Pls do continue your insights in different sectors which will help us for further analysis...
I'm glad you like my work, Sandeep ji 🙌 Thank you!
Thanks Shankar Ji,benefited from Zaggle,As per latest comments from finance minister about Importance of MSME's growth in India,fingers crossed UGRO will benifit from it..as always looking forward for your YT Videos and newsletters
Most welcome Suresh ji. I'm glad Zaggle worked well for you (and me too). With UGRO, I'm working under a copycat hypothesis i.e. if Five Star Business Finance can make a 20,000 crore mcap business in 22 years -- then UGRO Capital should be able to do that in the next 10 year. That's an yearly CAGR of 24%. Ofcourse, numbers can go only that far and it's important to monitor UGRO Capital's performance on a quarterly basis. I feel some of the metrics the management has given (esp. ROA of 4% in the next 8 quarters) will be a stretch for them
Yeah I agree,I see Management is confident not only on their ROA's but also with NPA's.Hope they are true and so de we..
Thanks a lot Shankar for the news letter comparing all the stocks you analysed earlier. The results shown by these companies were mostly in line with your expectations and so we're their share prices. Keep it up. Eagerly waiting to be a part of your paid member community once you come up with one.
Thank you so much Indraneel ji 🙌 I'm really happy, this first salvo has come out well even in an environment of price correction. I'll continue working & improving on this. Like life, so in investing -- you win some, you lose some. Just win more than you lose.
Thanks a lot Shankar for this! Loved it!!
As retail investors, this kind of comparison with benchmark index reinforces our investment decisions are heading in right direction.
Most welcome Subas ji. Glad you liked it 🙌
Waiting for your comments on Shalimar paints
Pls see comment & answer from Niraj below