Kilburn Engineering has revised its guidance from the Q2FY25 earnings call, impacting both our estimates and my confidence in the management/margin of safety
Thank you Shankarji for the detailed analysis and transparently acknowledging the misses in the previous analysis. That’s what makes you stand above others. Best wishes
Shankar Ji,Good Morning.. Appreciate your detail analysis on it,I understand your point of view,But why the promoters are keep on buying the shares,Are we Missing something?they are exaggerated their guidance yet they were also on the buying spree..Can you please help us to understand better about it,Thanks
Yes, there's been promoter buying activity over the last one month -- some 1.5 lakh shares has been bought from the open market. To add perspective, the total number of o/s equity shares is 4.74 crores, so the recent purchases amounts to 0.3% of total shareholding
Now there can be a few reasons for this -
a) The promoter (Firstview Trading Private Limited) believes the stock is undervalued and is therefore adding to it
b) Or, maybe they've fallen for management's optimism
c) Or, maybe it's to keep potential investors on-alert (promoters are known to do that by adding some quantities)
I'm unable to deduce the reason but as an investor, I feel there's enough on KEL to make an independent assessment of where the company is headed in terms of revenues, orderbook, margins, growth, market and profits.
Personally for me, promoter selling is a stronger signal than promoter buying
i read your notes on kilburn and your thoughts on the issue with orderbook and revenue but according to the may 2025 concall they told that they got a huge order book. just want to know your opinion on this. also they are supplying to L&T for nuclear sector which is also booming these days.
Haha..means it is. Actually I assumed the list that you have shared is only your stock portfolio. Would be interested if you can share your research on this company.
Thank you Shankar babu for the sincere update. It greatly matters to be up to date on the business discussed earlier. Whether or not the news is positive does not matter. Latest information is the key. Appreciate the efforts.
Sir when I checked the CFO/EBITA I could see it less than 10 % . Never crossed 10%. Is it bcz of this industry is such that this % will be on lower side always or is there something wrong in presented revenue and absolute revenues?
Hello, sir. Thank you for providing the update along with proper reasoning. It takes courage to admit a mistake in public.
I have some doubts. I believe you must have noticed hints of the issues with the stock for some time now. So why sell at the bottom? In such situations, I tend to think that the stock will at least return to its pre-fall levels, around 450-460 (which, I believe, was our buy price). I know this may not be the right way of thinking, but don’t you think the company is still fundamentally strong and has the potential to reclaim its all-time high? It seems that the price drop is largely due to external factors, as the overall market sentiment is negative.
Could you please guide my views for such situations? Not just for this stock but also on investing in general?
Additionally, where do you plan to allocate your funds now? Will you stay in cash for a while, distribute it among other holdings, or do you have a new stock in mind?
1. You might be right -- its definitely possible that KEL might bounce back from here and create new highs. The Q4FY25 results will share more light on this. You might want to track their Q4FY25 revenues & orderbook status
2. I think of situations a bit differently now. A drop in the price is acceptable but a drop in business/guidance often requires a reboot/review. I also give a preference to "my estimations conducted with a margin of safety" over "management promises". If I'm wrong, so be it .. it's better than fretting over the management being wrong
3. Sorry, I won't be able to shed light on my own plans. That said, I'm happy to see a few members within the Alpha community discussing upcoming opportunities. If most members are agreeable, I'll summarize the thoughts there in a newsletter once a month. Pls allow me sometime on this
No problem Jay ji. You asked me about the lesson I learnt from such situations for investing in general. Here it is -- There is nothing right or wrong in investing. There's only possible, plausible and probable
In the KEL situation -- it's 'possible' that KEL might bounce back but from my perspective, it's 'plausible' that KEL will see more pain in FY26
Thank you sir ji
Salute to your great ethics
Thank you!
Many thanks for periodical 360 degree review and update. This is shows basic governance at our level and true valuation possible to stay or exit.
Thank you Mr. Saha. Yes, these situations also add to my mental notes on what to pay extra attention to in future evaluations
Thanks Shankar ji for the timely info👍👌
Most welcome Praveen ji. Please evaluate it at your end too
Thank you Shankarji for the detailed analysis and transparently acknowledging the misses in the previous analysis. That’s what makes you stand above others. Best wishes
Most welcome Mr. Chakravarthy. Mistakes will happen but I’m learning from these experiences .. afterall investing is a lifelong pursuit for most of us
Shankar Ji,Good Morning.. Appreciate your detail analysis on it,I understand your point of view,But why the promoters are keep on buying the shares,Are we Missing something?they are exaggerated their guidance yet they were also on the buying spree..Can you please help us to understand better about it,Thanks
Good morning to you too
Yes, there's been promoter buying activity over the last one month -- some 1.5 lakh shares has been bought from the open market. To add perspective, the total number of o/s equity shares is 4.74 crores, so the recent purchases amounts to 0.3% of total shareholding
Now there can be a few reasons for this -
a) The promoter (Firstview Trading Private Limited) believes the stock is undervalued and is therefore adding to it
b) Or, maybe they've fallen for management's optimism
c) Or, maybe it's to keep potential investors on-alert (promoters are known to do that by adding some quantities)
I'm unable to deduce the reason but as an investor, I feel there's enough on KEL to make an independent assessment of where the company is headed in terms of revenues, orderbook, margins, growth, market and profits.
Personally for me, promoter selling is a stronger signal than promoter buying
hello sir
i read your notes on kilburn and your thoughts on the issue with orderbook and revenue but according to the may 2025 concall they told that they got a huge order book. just want to know your opinion on this. also they are supplying to L&T for nuclear sector which is also booming these days.
Thanks for detailed analysis and transparency of your actions.
Are you using AI tools for your analysis?
Thank you sir. But if the addressable market is around 2000 crores with sales of around 250 crores it is still 9-10 times
Your views on ganesha ecosphere? Surprised it isn't part of your portfolio... looking at TAM, recycling theme, good revenue growth..
Curious to know -- how you figured Ganesh Ecosphere isn't a part of my portfolio?
Haha..means it is. Actually I assumed the list that you have shared is only your stock portfolio. Would be interested if you can share your research on this company.
Thank you Shankar babu for the sincere update. It greatly matters to be up to date on the business discussed earlier. Whether or not the news is positive does not matter. Latest information is the key. Appreciate the efforts.
Thanks for sharing. Where did you re-invest the amount then?
Most welcome. The money was deployed to companies within my existing portfolio
Would you be able to review Imagica, Shalimar Paints and GHCLTextiles as well?
Sorry, I exited those long back plus my tracking list is a bit tall now, so I've kept these out of scope
Sir when I checked the CFO/EBITA I could see it less than 10 % . Never crossed 10%. Is it bcz of this industry is such that this % will be on lower side always or is there something wrong in presented revenue and absolute revenues?
Hello. I don't have anything concrete on this .. sorry! If you're doing one, please do share your findings
Hello, sir. Thank you for providing the update along with proper reasoning. It takes courage to admit a mistake in public.
I have some doubts. I believe you must have noticed hints of the issues with the stock for some time now. So why sell at the bottom? In such situations, I tend to think that the stock will at least return to its pre-fall levels, around 450-460 (which, I believe, was our buy price). I know this may not be the right way of thinking, but don’t you think the company is still fundamentally strong and has the potential to reclaim its all-time high? It seems that the price drop is largely due to external factors, as the overall market sentiment is negative.
Could you please guide my views for such situations? Not just for this stock but also on investing in general?
Additionally, where do you plan to allocate your funds now? Will you stay in cash for a while, distribute it among other holdings, or do you have a new stock in mind?
Most welcome, Mr. Chavda
1. You might be right -- its definitely possible that KEL might bounce back from here and create new highs. The Q4FY25 results will share more light on this. You might want to track their Q4FY25 revenues & orderbook status
2. I think of situations a bit differently now. A drop in the price is acceptable but a drop in business/guidance often requires a reboot/review. I also give a preference to "my estimations conducted with a margin of safety" over "management promises". If I'm wrong, so be it .. it's better than fretting over the management being wrong
3. Sorry, I won't be able to shed light on my own plans. That said, I'm happy to see a few members within the Alpha community discussing upcoming opportunities. If most members are agreeable, I'll summarize the thoughts there in a newsletter once a month. Pls allow me sometime on this
Thank you for your reply.
Btw sorry to call your overlook a mistake.
No problem Jay ji. You asked me about the lesson I learnt from such situations for investing in general. Here it is -- There is nothing right or wrong in investing. There's only possible, plausible and probable
In the KEL situation -- it's 'possible' that KEL might bounce back but from my perspective, it's 'plausible' that KEL will see more pain in FY26
Hello Sir
Can't this be a one time issue, I mean even big companies like TCS and Infosys revise their guidance each quarter.
And regarding TAM, management seems confident there is a 5 times scope for growth
And you also mention that the market size of Waste heat recovery in Cement is a 5000 Cr market, which is much more than current sales of Kilburn Engg.
The opportunity is still huge. Correct me if I am wrong sir.
You can right on this too, Mr. Mundhada. The picture will get clearer in when the results come for Q4